Crude oil rose and plastic rebounded in short term

Market trend: L1501 contract closed at 9720 points, up 45 points, or 0.47%. The trading volume was 902146 hands, and the position decreased 8246 hands to 427232 hands; The PP1501 contract closed at 9762, down 18 points, or 0.18%. The trading volume was 262022 hands, and the position increased by 14260 hands to 187412 hands.

Upstream raw materials: 1. Crude oil rose. The December contract of NYMEX crude oil futures rose $1.01 to $81.95 per barrel, and the December contract of ICE Brent rose $1.70 to $85.82 per barrel. 2. CFR Japanese naphtha fell 17.5 dollars/ton to 693.13 dollars/ton. 3. Ethylene in Asia fell, CFR Northeast Asia fell 5 dollars/ton to 1435 dollars/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia fell 10 dollars/ton to 1400 dollars/ton. 4. Propylene in Asia fell sharply, FOB South Korea fell 26 dollars/ton to 1215 dollars/ton, and CFR China fell 25 dollars/ton to 1265 dollars/ton.

Spot market: 1. LLDPE: The petrochemical sector has lowered, and the spot price has continued to fall by 50-100 yuan/ton. The linear mainstream price in North China is 10200-10500 yuan/ton, the linear mainstream price in East China is 10500-10600 yuan/ton, and the linear mainstream price in South China is 10450-10550 yuan/ton. The market confidence is insufficient and the overall trading atmosphere is flat. 2. PP wire drawing: The prices of some petrochemical products continued to fall, and the market fluctuated at a low level. The mainstream prices in North China market were 10500-10600 yuan/ton, in East China market 10600-10650 yuan/ton, and in South China market 10800-10950 yuan/ton. The downstream purchase intention was low, so they could buy whatever they wanted.

Market analysis: Under the pressure of cost reduction and capacity expansion, plastics and PP may maintain a short position trend. However, after a sharp decline in the early period, the fund's willingness to short under the condition of severe discount to the future price has weakened. The position has decreased sharply in recent days, and the trend has stabilized. There are signs that plastics are stronger than PP. In view of the fact that the expansion pressure of plastic production capacity is less than PP, and there is just a need for support in the peak season, the price difference between the two may gradually expand, so arbitrage operations can be carried out for many plastics and empty PP..

Operation suggestions: LLDPE and PP are only partially closed, and the remaining small amount is held by relying on the previous gap; If the arbitrage price difference between multiple L1501 and empty PP1501 is about - 50, a position can be built.